2025 presents a year of significant opportunities and risks to the aviation sector’s net-zero journey. 

The political economy across Europe has shifted; ‘competitiveness’ has overtaken ‘climate’ on the EU’s agenda as a result of last year’s elections, with uncertainty still prevailing in a number of critical member states. 

‘Growth’ has been central to the new Labour government’s priorities in the UK. And another era of Trumpism is already derailing climate progress whilst unveiling the influence of US politics in Europe. But what does all this mean for aviation?

Aviation is seen to support a vision of growth and economic prosperity by facilitating trade, tourism and innovation. The industries that underpin the sector’s energy transition – hydrogen, renewable energy, advanced manufacturing, alternative fuel production – are also viewed as cornerstones of a ‘net-zero future’ in Europe. 

The EU’s newly launched Clean Industrial Deal provides some clarity on how the region plans to grow these industries in a sustainable way, with the UK’s own Industrial Strategy due to be launched in spring this year. These strategies help outline which industries are seen as a priority to European policymakers but currently don’t go far enough in addressing the pace and scale of transformation needed to reach climate targets. 

Fuelling a new market

Europe’s overall strategic prioritisation of industrial growth arrives alongside alternative aviation fuel mandates that have officially entered into force this year. These require “sustainable aviation fuel” (SAF) to provide a minimum share of two per cent of total jet fuel at both the UK and EU levels. 

The mandates create an obligation on fuel producers to supply alternative fuels which are in ever-growing demand from airlines. They exist alongside a suite of other policies and funding mechanisms aimed at growing the SAF markets in the UK and EU. 

Yet even with these mandates, the growth of the new fuels market in Europe is faltering, particularly for those that could deliver the highest lifecycle emission reductions: e-fuels*. According to Transport & Environment, none of the major e-fuel plants currently awaiting construction in Europe have achieved a Final Investment Decision (FID).

In 2025, our focus is to build on our extensive learnings and activities of the past year to ensure that the actions of private sector investors and allied e-fuel value chain players have made significant progress on unblocking current market and policy barriers to e-fuel scale-up.

We believe this will provide greater confidence that mandated e-fuel supply will be met by 2030 in support of aviation reaching its net-zero goal. Still, these alternative fuels, which vary substantially in terms of environment, equity and just transition criteria, are only a drop in the ocean when it comes to addressing the climate impact of aviation. 

Confronting inequality

What the sector desperately needs to do in 2025 (and beyond) is reduce demand for flying. The pursuit of net-zero progress cannot afford to see the European aviation industry double its passenger traffic by 2050 as some predict. Analysis by the New Economics Foundation found that if the frequent flyers that take more than four flights a year flew less than they currently do – and who represent just 4.5 per cent of the western European population – we would see a 50 per cent reduction in flights and therefore a significant drop in greenhouse gas emissions.

Policymakers must consider taxes, levies and restrictions to confront the flying habits of private jet and business travel users whilst encouraging the uptake of sustainable alternatives. And though there are immediate wins for the climate and economy through such measures, rebalancing the inequities in this sector can’t come from targeting the behaviours of individuals alone.

If there is one thing the aviation sector has consistently excelled at, it has been controlling the narrative surrounding flying and climate change. Attempts to challenge some of the Goliaths of the industry on climate action – whether it be legacy airlines, Big Oil majors, internationally renowned airports or the aircraft duopoly – is often met with consistent retorts of ‘environmentalist want to take away your holiday’, ‘profit margins are razor thin’ or ‘there is too much policy uncertainty’. 

This year, we will be working closely with the more than 45 organisations that comprise our Aviation Communications Learning Network to equip partners with communications resources and align advocacy efforts to drive new narratives in the media, business and policy spaces.

Shifting aviation narratives

2025 is already seeing many live issues at play in Europe. The UK Government are supporting the expansion of airports like London Heathrow in the face of significant climate and economic counterarguments, there remains strong industry opposition to the French governments’ newly introduced Airline Ticket Solidarity Tax, Airbus has rolled back its commitment to delivering a hydrogen aircraft by 2035 and Europe’s largest airline – Ryanair – has said it won’t deliver any of its new, more efficient aircraft to countries that are ‘raising taxes’. 

Throughout 2024, we worked closely with partners including research experts and climate communicators to build a strong evidence base for which messages resonate with the general public the most in support of stronger policies on aviation decarbonisation. In 2025, we aim to put those messages to the test through creative campaigns and collective civil society efforts that aim to tackle industry narratives head on.

Another line often peddled is that aviation only accounts for a small percentage of global CO₂ emissions. However, when you also consider the warming effect of non-CO₂ emissions and superpollutants like nitrous oxides, soot and contrails produced in flight, the impacts are much more significant (an assessment supported by the European Commission). Without significant action to tackle all emissions from aviation, the sector is on course to consume a quarter of the entire 1.5°C carbon budget and be responsible for a staggering 22 per cent of global emissions by 2050. 

This year, accounting for the full suite of emissions from aviation through mechanisms like the EU and UK Emission Trading Systems (ETS) and at the international level via ICAO’s CORSIA scheme needs to be high priority. Though, while the narrative from the aviation sector is that ‘SAF will save the day’ when it comes to addressing its environmental impact, there are actual emerging solutions that could see us remove greenhouse gas emissions whilst reimagining the future of flying: zero emission aircraft. 

Accelerating the future of flight

The realisation of zero emission flight, powered by battery-electric and hydrogen technologies, will be essential to delivering net-zero aviation. If the sector has any hope in meeting its 2050 target, all aircraft from the 2030s need to have net-zero emissions baked into their entire lifespan and zero emission flight demonstrations must be delivered within 2025. 

Europe is well positioned to take the lead on these technologies due to its strong history of aerospace innovation and the short-mid haul market segment that these aircraft could supply is well suited to its geography. 

Whilst urgent efforts are needed to curb demand for flying, the reality is that aviation will remain an important sector that connects us as a global community and we must also look to solutions that can work for society and our planet. This year, we will be collaborating with civil society partners and private sector actors – including supportive industry stakeholders  and innovators – to build momentum for policy measures and drive investment so that zero emission flight can become a reality. 

2025 is a pivotal year for seeing progress on the pathway to net-zero aviation. Climate Catalyst will continue to work with our civil society partners to ensure policies are strengthened, the public are engaged and the private sector are activated to take real action on tackling the climate impacts of flying. 

Find out more about our work on aviation here, reach out to me at emma@climatecatalyst.org

* When created with additional renewables and green hydrogen, and a sustainable source of CO2 assessed on a project-by-project basis.

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