“Systems change.” It’s a phrase that gets thrown around a lot. It can sound daunting, and abstract. What does it really mean? And, more importantly, how do you measure it?
At first glance, you might think that the topics we work on at Climate Catalyst are distinct and unrelated. Our work, to date, has spanned topics from peatlands protection to steel decarbonisation and sustainable aviation.
But there are patterns in how change happens across these seemingly disparate topics. Patterns we set out to shift and accelerate to produce targeted outcomes and impact that put these critical sectors and geographies on track to reach net-zero by 2050.
How do we define systems change?
Historically, impact evaluation has focused on proving that an activity or intervention directly caused a new result. While this has brought attention to how action leads to tangible change, it doesn’t capture the broader, ongoing influences and dynamics in complex systems.
Systems change is an approach to addressing entrenched problems – such as climate change – by shifting the underlying structure, relationships and dynamics that cause them. This might look like strengthened policies and regulation, increased community engagement and changes in behaviour, shifts in investment patterns, increased adoption of green technology and industry-wide shifts.
We focus our attention on policy change and shifting financial flows. We believe these are the crucial levers for reducing emissions within the systems in which we work. Activating these levers requires mobilising new and existing actors, strengthening key narratives and guiding the private sector toward impactful action.
For example, steel decarbonisation might seem like a straightforward challenge— phase out blast-furnace steel production and transition to low-emission technologies such as electric-arc furnaces. But the steel industry’s transformation is about much more than emissions alone. It requires policy incentives to make greener steel cost-competitive, industry commitments to drive demand, and significant investment in renewable energy infrastructure. Addressing high capital costs, technological immaturity, supply constraints of green hydrogen and renewable electricity, and uncertain policy support requires a systems change approach to align financial incentives.
We are taking such an approach via the India Green Steel Network’s Sustainable Finance Taskforce which includes members spanning the steel industry, civil society, think tanks and academia working together to propose a combination of policy and economic levers to accelerate decarbonisation.
Given that our programmes take a systems change approach, simultaneously tackling multiple elements that bottleneck progress on our selected issues, we are striving for long-term transitions.
These don’t happen overnight.
To ensure that any small changes we observe translate into those longer term transitions, we need to be monitoring and responding to short- and medium-term signals of change that indicate whether our interventions are moving us toward our desired outcomes and impact. Let’s take a look at how we do that.
Valuing intermediate outcomes is key to measuring systems change
Our goal is to push under-addressed climate issues to a “point of no return” – a tipping point beyond which change is inevitable. As such we set our objectives, and success measures with these in mind. And while our ultimate goal is to see the sectors we work in on a pathway to a net zero future, we watch for and respond to the short- and medium-term signals of systemic change.
For example, our work tackling aviation’s climate impact in Europe. Our end goal is to see private capital flow to scale up e-fuel production and ensure Europe’s ReFuelEU mandate is met. (The mandate sets a target of 15 per cent ‘sustainable aviation fuel’ use by 2035, with a sub-target of five per cent of this coming from e-fuels.)
But along the way, we look for indicators of change that show progress towards this “point of no return”. This includes the redirection of investments from lower-integrity fuels – such as biofuels – to e-fuels, increased partnerships between e-fuel companies, the energy sector and the finance community, investor advocacy for sustainable and equitable alternative fuels as part of their corporate stewardship with airlines and energy companies.
Viewing change as a shared achievement
We’re engaging in complex systems. As such, it’s difficult to pinpoint exactly which intervention led to which outcome. Not to mention that the time frame for seeing measurable outcomes can span several years. Of course, this doesn’t mean that we stop demonstrating how our interventions are contributing to change. It just means we act from a place of humility and acknowledge that our actions alone are rarely the sole cause of change. We instead see them as a compounding factor that accelerates change at a quicker pace and more unified approach.
For example, our private sector engagement work with Corporate Leaders Group Europe – a network of business leaders that supports and advocates for a climate neutral economy – to build a collective private sector voice in support of the Nature Restoration Law led to multiple businesses speaking out in favour of the law in the media and with policymakers. The EU Commission VP at the time, Frans Timmermans, cited the strong call from business as an important driver for the proposed law. This was a significant contribution to the passing of the Nature Restoration Law in Europe. While our efforts were a critical contribution, the passing of the law was the result of a broad coalition of actors working together, each playing a role in bringing about this change.
Real-time learning is necessary to match the pace of change in the systems in which we work
Policy interventions in complex domains like decarbonisation of heavy industry will often need to evolve over time in response to how the system is adapting.
Because we don’t know up front how to best help solve complex problems such as decarbonising the aviation industry, we need to continuously learn and adapt what we are aiming for based on learning.
To do this effectively, we are constantly scanning and responding to developments in government policy, market incentives and cross-sector collaboration that relate to our programmes. As we learn about new developments and updates, we often have to reevaluate the goalposts of progress that we set ourselves.
For example, in our work on sustainable aviation, measuring impact isn’t always about achieving a new policy win—it can also be about preventing rollbacks of existing mandates, in light of turns in political tides.
Our four key lenses for measuring systems change
Given that our approach to enabling policy change and shifting financial flows involves building power for action via networks and narrative change, we assess progress across four key categories in our programmes over time. These categories focus on intermediate outcomes that signal the big changes we are after and provide timely information that helps evolve our strategies and tactics to be most effective and likely to produce significant impact:
Creating new and strong connections between network members to foster shared visions of success and progress.
- Increased connectivity between stakeholders
- Greater access to knowledge, resources, and information
- Alignment of shared goals
- Strengthened capacity to advance shared goals
- Members undertake collective action
Shifting the dominant stories and frames that shape how people think about an issue.
- Reach and uptake of new frames
- Increased awareness among target audiences
- Visibility of kes messengers
- Media coverage reflecting shifts in discourse
Businesses and investors support or advocate for policy change and shift their investment decisions.
- Investor engagement with messaging and options for action
- Significant projects reaching Final Investment Decision
- Coordination of investor advocacy
- Greater investor awareness of opportunities for scaling alternatives
- Private sector actors supporting policy changes
New policies are proposed, implementation frameworks are devised or existing policy is modified in line with ambitious climate goals.
- Alignment of policy frames with new narratives
- Increased political will
- Improved policies in target areas
Key tools for measuring systems change
As we assess our work against the four above criteria, there are a number of tools we use to measure the changes we’re driving:
- Theory of Change: As we embark on a new programme of work, we begin by setting out our Theory of Change for the work. This provides us with clarity on how we think change can be delivered, and helps to identify the interventions and activities we can undertake to deliver the longer term systemic outcomes we want to achieve.
- Impact Ladders: Once we have our Theory of Change in place, we set out to create ‘Impact Ladders’. These ladders turn our overarching visions for our work into a clear, step-by-step journey of just how this change will be delivered. This allows us to both map our own activities and to understand those intermediate indicators we are monitoring to indicate that momentum is building and that change is taking place.
- Partner surveys: A key part of our Theory of Change is that we need to strengthen the ecosystem in which we are operating, by building capacity with civil society actors, and by breaking down silos and creating connection across civil society and the private sector. As such a key indicator of change in the system, is more stakeholder alignment and cross-sector collaboration. We regularly seek feedback from our partners to understand whether the ecosystem has been strengthened to better understand the impact we are having.
- Quarterly and ad hoc learning reviews: We regularly assess our progress towards our goals through structured learning sessions which help us refine our strategies in real time.
- Example: In our steel work in India, we initially explored whether recycling scrap from ships could provide a steady supply of melted scrap for secondary steelmaking in India, potentially contributing to the country’s decarbonisation efforts. But through our learning processes we realised that some of our initial assumptions were invalid so we re-focused our approach to ensure our research and findings on this topic remained valuable to the steel and shipping industries in India.
- Evidence of change logs: We document early wins and signals of change as we encounter them, whether expected or unexpected, so that we can make sense of if and how our interventions are contributing to those changes. For example, the Indian government’s 2024 release of the Greening Steel report, including a green steel roadmap, taxonomy for green steel, and draft green steel mission signaled that the steel system in India is changing in line with our advocacy efforts.
- Impact stories and case studies: We document lessons learned about what has worked or not worked in achieving progress towards policy change or financial shifts in our topic areas. We share these lessons with other organisations and actors working towards similar goals so that collectively we can move faster and with the most up-to-date information about what is effective as possible.
Why focus on these tools? By relying on these tools, we ensure that our learning is not just retrospective but also forward-looking, helping us adapt and maximize our impact in real time. We recognize that systems don’t change overnight, nor as a result of a single intervention. But by continuously tracking progress, learning from our work, and adjusting our strategies accordingly, we can contribute meaningfully to long-term, transformative change.
Embracing complexity, energising progress
Transforming entrenched systems is neither linear nor predictable. Peatlands aren’t protected through one-off interventions. Steel doesn’t decarbonise overnight. Aviation doesn’t reimagine itself in a single policy cycle.
Yet by taking a humble, curious approach to measurement—one that values learning as much as proving—we can identify where our collective energy is most needed and when tipping points are within reach. This measurement approach reflects our broader philosophy: bringing diverse perspectives together, remaining adaptable in the face of uncertainty, and continuously learning from both successes and setbacks.
We’re committed to sharing our evolving insights with the wider climate community. Because just as no single organisation can solve the climate crisis alone, no single framework will capture all the dimensions of transformation. We invite you to join us in this ongoing conversation about how we measure what matters most—the fundamental shifts that make lasting climate progress possible.
Want to learn more about our approach to systems change? Get in touch or explore our programmes pages to see how these principles come to life in our work.
About the Author
Ali
Focused on putting sustainable development into practice, Ali’s career has centred on delivering learning initiatives that contribute to a better future. She designed and delivered transformative learning programs for diverse audiences around the world. As our Sr Head of Network Learning and Innovation, Ali is responsible for designing and implementing Climate Catalyst’s learning and innovation strategy, tailored to each of our programmes.
